Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c36…297b other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-17%) realized −$24 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$37
14 days−$20
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$32
other 20% +$13
politics 12% $0
crypto 11% −$9
economics 7% −$1
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.5% -25.4% 31% 31% -56.1%
≤30d 35 +24.1% +12.3% 54% 43% -28.1%
≤90d 35 +24.1% +12.3% 54% 43% -28.1%
all 35 +24.1% +12.3% 54% 43% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 43% -28.1%
10% +1.6% 26% -34.9%
15% -8.3% 20% -41.2%
20% -17.3% 14% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)35 / 45
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 77¢ 52¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $6 $0 +6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $1 $0 +19%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 05 $2 $0 -3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 +$11 +1115%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $1 $0 +32%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 01 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 52m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 7¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL HyperSpirit 30¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 5¢ $1 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 4¢ $2 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 4¢ $3 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 22¢ $4 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $8 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $10 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 49¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $5 5d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 52¢ $8 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.48 · official $12.48 (match) · 82 history records