Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
7C 0x7c3a…5678 sports 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,795 (+7%) realized +$2,385 · open +$410
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%51W / 30L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$867
7 days+$2,534
14 days+$932
30 days+$2,648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$2,750
other 27% −$101
world 3% +$409
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +33.3% +20.6% 64% 56% +3.4%
≤30d 81 +24.5% +12.6% 63% 54% -3.0%
≤90d 81 +24.5% +12.6% 63% 54% -3.0%
all 81 +24.5% +12.6% 63% 54% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 54% -3.0%
10% +1.9% 48% -12.3%
15% -8.0% 43% -20.8%
20% -17.0% 31% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$677) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$328 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized+$2,385
Unrealized+$410
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses51 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage24d
Avg bet$455
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 46¢ 100¢ $350 $760 +$410 (+117%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $476 +$204 +43%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $687 −$687 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,745 +$595 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $90 −$2 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $544 −$544 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $128 −$128 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $304 −$304 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,051 +$409 +39%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $891 +$145 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $503 −$503 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $369 +$211 +57%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $650 +$310 +48%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $498 −$498 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $1,024 +$175 +17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $735 +$225 +31%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $597 +$53 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $744 +$216 +29%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $133 +$201 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $185 +$301 +163%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $846 +$54 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $234 +$202 +86%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $305 +$205 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $151 +$203 +134%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $31 +$201 +650%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $229 +$231 +101%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $107 −$107 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $259 +$409 +158%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $581 +$219 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 23 $21 +$10 +48%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $677 +$403 +60%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $217 −$217 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,903 +$97 +5%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $266 +$227 +85%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $98 +$512 +525%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,494 +$306 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $611 +$588 +96%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $792 −$792 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $837 −$837 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,183 +$97 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $353 +$509 +144%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $313 +$383 +122%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $48 +$20 +43%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,049 +$51 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 46¢ $355 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $85 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $336 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $10 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $2 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $11 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 70¢ $31 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 13¢ $88 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 13¢ $90 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $1,745 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 17¢ $128 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $544 45h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $687 46h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 43¢ $282 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 43¢ $2 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 43¢ $4 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 43¢ $8 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 43¢ $9 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $424 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $573 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $27 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $27 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $891 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 35¢ $47 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 54¢ $19 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 54¢ $3 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 54¢ $11 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 62¢ $423 2d
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $369 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 67¢ $650 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.62 · official $759.62 (match) · 306 history records