Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c3d…5c6b
world · 138 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$205,636 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$116,806 · open +$9,423
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$235,420
Realized+$116,806
Unrealized+$9,423
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses51 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions145
Markets (closed)73 / 138
Avg bet$11,813
Trades / day333.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 145 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,694
7 days+$13,039
14 days+$116,806
30 days+$116,806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 82¢ $20,142 $20,813 +$672 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $15,751 $16,494 +$744 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 68¢ 90¢ $10,136 $13,360 +$3,224 (+32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $6,928 $10,970 +$4,042 (+58%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $10,006 $10,166 +$160 (+2%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $8,776 $9,092 +$316 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $10,376 $8,656 −$1,720 (-17%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $7,780 $8,343 +$563 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 85¢ 78¢ $8,500 $7,850 −$650 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 64¢ 52¢ $9,600 $7,725 −$1,875 (-20%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5,315 $5,619 +$304 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 54¢ $6,231 $5,376 −$854 (-14%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $4,494 $4,930 +$436 (+10%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 63¢ 87¢ $3,147 $4,350 +$1,203 (+38%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $4,178 $4,203 +$25 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $3,705 $3,820 +$115 (+3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 34¢ 75¢ $1,703 $3,723 +$2,019 (+119%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $2,896 $3,564 +$668 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $3,233 $3,534 +$301 (+9%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 84¢ 98¢ $2,950 $3,438 +$488 (+17%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,315 $3,357 +$41 (+1%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $2,843 $2,964 +$121 (+4%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 88¢ 91¢ $2,828 $2,924 +$96 (+3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $2,877 $2,859 −$18 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 87¢ 89¢ $2,698 $2,760 +$62 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $4,541 −$394 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $304,968 +$5,913 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $4,005 +$10 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $370 +$41 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3,176 −$24 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $500 −$150 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $45 +$93 +208%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $4,065 +$155 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $16,566 +$671 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $9,383 +$1,757 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $100 −$25 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2,901 −$20 -1%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $169 +$164 +97%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 11 $506 −$217 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $3,678 +$1,448 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,705 +$284 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $6,154 +$375 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3,631 +$62 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $310 +$3 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,812 +$257 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $5 +$9 +182%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $6,271 +$969 +16%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,128 +$2 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $871 +$5 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,710 +$27 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2,221 +$183 +8%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $460 +$40 +9%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $1,602 +$256 +16%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3,601 +$406 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $8,729 +$638 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $370 +$190 +51%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $357 −$181 -51%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $3,263 +$70 +2%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $716 +$41 +6%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,291 +$537 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $12,034 −$35 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $11,121 −$10 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,488 −$227 -15%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $138,829 −$2,536 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $985 −$51 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $801 −$6 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $250,000 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $2,650 −$223 -8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $1,626 +$122 +8%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $479 +$442 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $1,068 +$993 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$14,563
crypto 35% +$99,488
politics 19% +$2,136
other 7% +$9,219
sports 0% +$108
finance 0% +$138
economics 0% +$106
tech 0% +$431
culture 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 28¢ $6 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $949 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $238 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $190 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $17 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $71 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +13.7% +2.8% 66% 29% -8.1%
≤30d 73 +44.9% +31.1% 70% 29% -2.0%
≤90d 73 +44.9% +31.1% 70% 29% -2.0%
all 73 +44.9% +31.1% 70% 29% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover333.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.1% 29% -2.0%
10% +18.6% 19% -11.4%
15% ← realistic here +7.1% 19% -20.0%
20% -3.4% 15% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235,419.77 · official $235,429.59 (match) · 3500 history records