Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7C
0x7c41…500d
weather · 1307 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$283 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$272 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,978
Realized−$272
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses515 / 504
Open positions356
Markets (closed)1019 / 1307
History coverage29d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day80.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 356 History 1019 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$372
14 days−$235
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? No 98¢ 94¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$66 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$18 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11 Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 87% +$84
crypto 11% −$372
other 1% +$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 15m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 16m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 24m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 760 -15.4% -23.5% 58% 9% -17.4%
≤30d 1019 -11.3% -19.7% 51% 14% -14.2%
≤90d 1019 -11.3% -19.7% 51% 14% -14.2%
all 1019 -11.3% -19.7% 51% 14% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover80.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 14% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 12% -22.4%
15% -34.4% 12% -29.9%
20% -40.9% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,978.01 · official $1,979.28 (match) · 3500 history records