Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7C 0x7c42…82de other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$234 (+10%) realized +$299 · open −$65
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$499
sports 28% +$16
crypto 8% −$9
world 2% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% +21.8%
≤30d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% +21.8%
≤90d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% +21.8%
all 26 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 50% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 50% +21.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 46% +10.2%
15% -26.3% 42% -0.5%
20% -33.6% 38% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$32 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$759
Realized+$299
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions8
Markets (closed)26 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $372 $361 −$11 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $182 $173 −$9 (-5%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 44¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 26¢ 22¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 24¢ $60 $40 −$20 (-34%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $281 +$216 +77%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 29 $81 +$85 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $96 +$120 +126%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $257 +$184 +72%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$5 -45%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$44 +86%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $61 +$43 +70%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 +$4 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $49 +$13 +27%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $50 +$24 +48%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $31 +$89 +291%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$12 +114%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $96 +$84 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 26¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $21 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 53¢ $79 3h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 48¢ $81 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 10¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $10 7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 7h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 11¢ $21 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 15h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $102 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 20¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 55¢ $37 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 28h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 29h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes $6 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.84 · official $763.63 (match) · 68 history records