Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7C 0x7c43…deee weather 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$3 (+63%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +51.7% +37.2% 100% 100% +37.2%
≤30d 2 +51.7% +37.2% 100% 100% +37.2%
≤90d 2 +51.7% +37.2% 100% 100% +37.2%
all 2 +51.7% +37.2% 100% 100% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.2% 100% +37.2%
10% +24.1% 50% +24.1%
15% +12.1% 50% +12.1%
20% +1.1% 50% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 66¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.51 · official $3.51 (match) · 6 history records