Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7c43…e26f sports 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-5%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%50W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$5
other 20% +$5
sports 14% −$6
politics 8% +$5
economics 7% +$2
world 6% −$62
culture 1% −$7
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 81 -6.3% -15.2% 62% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 47% -14.4%
10% -23.3% 38% -22.6%
15% -30.7% 32% -30.1%
20% -37.5% 26% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses50 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage595d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Pistons Feb 08 $4 +$1 +35%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Jan 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 07 $6 +$4 +79%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 07 $13 +$7 +54%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025? Jan 07 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 07 $25 +$3 +12%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 07 $16 +$14 +85%
US recession in 2025? Jan 07 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-10? Dec 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Dec 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors Dec 10 $2 +$3 +133%
Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globally on Spotify f Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the most streamed song globally on Spotify f Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spo Dec 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? Dec 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02? Dec 04 $3 +$2 +82%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $4 +$1 +41%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 26 $3 +$2 +96%
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Nov 22 $3 +$2 +75%
Hawks vs. Spurs Nov 21 $2 +$3 +104%
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers Nov 21 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during Saudi PM events on Novembe Nov 18 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during the McDonald's Nov 18 $8 +$2 +33%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $4 +$1 +39%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Nov 13 $4 +$1 +35%
Predators vs. Rangers Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Islanders vs. Devils Nov 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 11 $5 +$5 +96%
Spread: Texans (-3.5) Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $3 +$2 +56%
Kansas vs. Arizona Nov 09 $6 +$4 +54%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $19 +$11 +59%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 08 $14 +$9 +65%
Houston vs. UCF Nov 08 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $112k November 3-9? Nov 08 $99 $0 +0%
North Korea missile launch by November 15? Nov 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Felix Protocol launch a token in 2025? Nov 05 $6 +$4 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $112 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $156 16h
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $10 44d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 61¢ $5 57d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $50 121d
Bulls vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 74¢ $4 166d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? SELL No 96¢ $10 186d
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $3 187d
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? BUY No 67¢ $3 188d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans BUY Trail Blazers 60¢ $3 193d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 194d
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $6 200d
Lakers vs. Raptors BUY Lakers 43¢ $2 200d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 202d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin BUY Yes 49¢ $2 207d
Clippers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 71¢ $4 209d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 51¢ $3 210d
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Topuria 57¢ $3 213d
Hawks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 49¢ $2 214d
Bulls vs. Trail Blazers BUY Bulls 60¢ $3 215d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $21 216d
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during Saudi PM events on Novembe BUY Yes 72¢ $4 216d
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during Saudi PM events on Novembe BUY Yes 72¢ $4 216d
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during the McDonald's BUY Yes 75¢ $8 217d
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? BUY No 73¢ $7 220d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Makhachev 72¢ $4 220d
Grizzlies vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 74¢ $4 222d
Will Ordinary by Alex Warren be the most streamed song globally on Spo BUY Yes 24¢ $2 223d
Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globally on Spotify f BUY Yes 11¢ $1 223d
Will Golden by HUNTR/X be the most streamed song globally on Spotify f BUY Yes 13¢ $1 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.39 · official $36.40 (match) · 185 history records