Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c43…dd66 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%26W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
politics 19% $0
sports 16% −$19
other 15% +$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 32 -7.1% -15.9% 34% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 77 -4.3% -13.4% 29% 1% -9.6%
all 87 -6.7% -15.6% 30% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 3% -10.2%
10% -23.7% 1% -18.8%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses26 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage536d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $79 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $52 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $23 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $103 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $25 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $69 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $12 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $11 −$1 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $96 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $3 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $9 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $83 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $34 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $105 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $28 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $8 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $17 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $28 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $27 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $27 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $23 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $23 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 338 history records