Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c43…190d crypto 23 markets active 4h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,646 (+4%) realized +$2,646 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,763per market
Trades / day87.0pace
Fees−$168est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$11,625
sports 28% +$1,109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 48% -24.6%
≤30d 23 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 48% -24.6%
≤90d 23 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 48% -24.6%
all 23 -19.0% -26.7% 52% 48% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 48% -24.6%
10% -33.7% 39% -31.8%
15% ← realistic here -40.1% 30% -38.4%
20% -46.0% 22% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,000) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$982 vs −$2,027 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$168
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,763
Trades / day87.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $2,077 −$2,077 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $955 +$1,325 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $2,065 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $2,056 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $4,536 +$47 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $3,957 +$1,022 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $7,140 −$194 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $2,665 +$1,379 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $4,080 −$4,080 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $2,065 −$2,065 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $4,054 +$981 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $2,678 −$2,678 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $2,059 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $1,031 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $1,093 +$546 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $1,038 +$1,145 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $2,016 +$224 +11%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $3,840 +$1,674 +44%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $4,056 −$4,000 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $3,016 +$629 +21%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $5,182 +$1,969 +38%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,670 +$837 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $471 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $236 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $524 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $307 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $539 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $543 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $412 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $601 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $845 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $619 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $431 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $596 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $580 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $450 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $94 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,155 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1,626 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1,054 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $202 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $607 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1,138 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1,502 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1,317 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1,014 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1,011 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1,016 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $990 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $705 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $962 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $564 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records