Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7c44…4b9d sports 279 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,878 (+7%) realized +$1,902 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%155W / 115L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$524est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$1,103
14 days−$1,103
30 days−$1,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$792
crypto 17% −$161
other 9% +$412
world 0% −$27
tech 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -8.1% -16.9% 42% 35% -50.1%
≤30d 130 -11.7% -20.1% 48% 40% -16.5%
≤90d 270 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 45% -5.8%
all 270 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 45% -5.8%
10% -19.4% 33% -14.8%
15% -27.2% 21% -23.0%
20% -34.3% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$52 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$1,902
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses155 / 115
Est. fees paid−$524
Open positions8
Markets (closed)270 / 279
History coverage72d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 74¢ $103 $157 +$53 (+51%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ 48¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 10¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$3 +7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $123 −$5 -4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$21 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$65 +64%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$67 +132%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $336 −$336 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $71 +$23 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 +$18 +43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $113 −$40 -35%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$75 +365%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $70 +$15 +21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 +$112 +275%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $173 −$139 -80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $60 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 24 $101 +$47 +46%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $51 −$2 -5%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $132 +$32 +24%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $280 +$99 +36%
Will Fukushima United FC vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo end in a draw? May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 23 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $142 +$35 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 23 $265 +$90 +34%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 23 $77 −$46 -61%
LoL: BoostGate Esports vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 23 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 59¢ $50 6m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $10 9m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $10 21m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $19 25m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $15 42m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $21 54m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 10¢ $21 56m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $31 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $110 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $101 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $100 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $105 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $118 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 40h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.38 · official $203.72 · 1106 history records