Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7C 0x7c45…8e6c other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$118 (+66%) realized +$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$115
sports 5% +$7
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+56.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +68.9% +52.8% 29% 29% -22.3%
≤30d 14 +68.9% +52.8% 29% 29% -22.3%
≤90d 15 +72.8% +56.4% 33% 33% +53.2%
all 15 +72.8% +56.4% 33% 33% +53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +56.4% 33% +53.2%
10% +41.4% 33% +38.6%
15% +27.8% 33% +25.2%
20% +15.2% 33% +12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +73% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +138% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$4 · ×8.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage81d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1374%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 02 $99 +$127 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 22h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 42h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 73¢ $226 45d
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 32¢ $99 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.93 (match) · 27 history records