Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c46…df8a crypto 385 markets active 7h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%156W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$29
14 days−$27
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$16
other 13% −$44
sports 7% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -11.8% -20.2% 39% 37% -6.1%
≤30d 385 -7.2% -16.1% 41% 37% -9.7%
≤90d 385 -7.2% -16.1% 41% 37% -9.7%
all 385 -7.2% -16.1% 41% 37% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 37% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 34% -18.3%
15% -31.4% 28% -26.2%
20% -38.1% 26% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses156 / 229
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)385 / 385
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 385 Trades
no open positions (200 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $58 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 654 history records