Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:36:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c46…d8be crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$212 (-7%) realized −$211 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate43%40W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$111
14 days−$121
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$180
other 29% −$39
politics 18% −$5
sports 7% −$10
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.3% -20.6% 29% 14% -21.8%
≤30d 37 -5.3% -14.3% 24% 8% -15.6%
≤90d 92 -10.4% -18.9% 43% 24% -17.1%
all 92 -10.4% -18.9% 43% 24% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 24% -17.1%
10% -26.7% 17% -25.0%
15% -33.8% 10% -32.3%
20% -40.3% 7% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage85d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 27 $54 −$3 -6%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 27 $60 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 25 $60 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 23 $88 −$2 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat? Jun 22 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 22 $35 $0 -0%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin Jun 22 $42 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $48 $0 -1%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $89 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Jun 20 $57 −$1 -1%
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $59 −$2 -4%
Human moon landing in 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 19 $63 −$1 -2%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $56 +$6 +10%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 18 $64 $0 -1%
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $56 −$3 -5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $68 −$1 -2%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $56 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $62 $0 -1%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$4 -6%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $35 −$17 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $35 −$14 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $29 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 09 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 09 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 09 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 09 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 09 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 09 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 09 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 09 $54 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 09 $21 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 92¢ $54 1h
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 92¢ $61 1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $51 2h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $58 2h
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 16h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $14 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $15 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 37h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 44h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 44h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $86 3d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 95¢ $86 3d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 98¢ $88 4d
Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat? SELL Yes 88¢ $53 4d
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? SELL No 99¢ $34 4d
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.37 · official $114.38 (match) · 263 history records