Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c47…8d7a sports 1031 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$382 (-1%) realized −$384 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%766W / 249L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days−$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$419
other 21% −$23
finance 6% −$6
weather 2% −$4
world 0% +$14
economics 0% −$8
politics 0% −$5
crypto 0% +$8
tech 0% +$10
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.2% -8.4% 85% 15% -8.8%
≤30d 58 +3.1% -6.7% 78% 19% -9.4%
≤90d 346 -4.2% -13.4% 82% 32% -10.7%
all 1015 -4.1% -13.2% 75% 48% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 48% -11.0%
10% -21.5% 27% -19.6%
15% -29.1% 13% -27.3%
20% -36.1% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized−$384
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses766 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1015 / 1031
History coverage246d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1015 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Over 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Under 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+67%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $63 +$4 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 21 $700 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Dave & Buster's (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Sprinklr (CXM) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will Docusign (DOCU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $7 $0 +5%
Will Samsara (IOT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4? Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 4? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on June 4? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 01 $274 +$10 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $121 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $3 −$1 -38%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Dycom Industries (DY) beat quarterly earnings? May 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Sinner vs. Tabur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 28 $400 +$13 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $30 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $300 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL TDK 67¢ $67 44h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $700 45h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY TDK 63¢ $63 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $10 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $5 45h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $700 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $3 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 4d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 8d
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 8d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 8d
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $4 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.64 · official $417.64 (match) · 2217 history records