trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo | Messi | 66¢ | 64¢ | $12 | $11 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | Yes | 45¢ | 44¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $9 | $3 | −$7 (-71%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET | Up | 51¢ | 50¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-20%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET | Up | 51¢ | 50¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -64% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -11% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | Jun 13 | $3 | +$1 | +22% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET | Jun 13 | $12 | −$1 | -9% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET | Jun 13 | $9 | −$1 | -10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$1 | +75% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -13.4% | -21.7% | 25% | 25% | -17.9% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -13.4% | -21.7% | 25% | 25% | -17.9% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -13.4% | -21.7% | 25% | 25% | -17.9% |
| all | 8 | -13.4% | -21.7% | 25% | 25% | -17.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -21.7% | 25% | -17.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -29.1% | 25% | -25.8% |
| 15% | -36.0% | 12% | -33.0% |
| 20% | -42.3% | 12% | -39.5% |