Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c4c…6699 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$12
politics 30% −$9
sports 7% −$58
economics 5% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -2.4% -11.7% 5% 2% -9.9%
all 101 -3.4% -12.6% 9% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 3% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage116d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $196 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $374 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $208 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $359 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 05 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $183 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $599 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $348 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $170 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $365 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $226 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $168 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $230 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $223 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 21 $422 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $201 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $442 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $413 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $386 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $402 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $227 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $414 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $186 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 18d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $196 25d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $196 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $188 32d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $188 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 37d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 44d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 45d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 45d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 45d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 46d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 46d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $180 46d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $198 47d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $198 47d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $217 47d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $217 47d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 47d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 47d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $209 47d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $209 48d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $186 48d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $186 48d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 322 history records