Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c4f…96da world 71 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day78.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$3
other 31% −$2
politics 24% −$3
sports 13% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.1% -11.4% 2% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 69 -1.9% -11.2% 3% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 69 -1.9% -11.2% 3% 0% -10.3%
all 69 -1.9% -11.2% 3% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 67
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day78.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? No 79¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 60¢ 70¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 12 $8 $0 -2%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Dum Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Izquierdo Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 11 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Set 1 Winner: Jovic vs Anisimova Jun 11 $29 $0 -2%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Hanne Vandewinkel: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 10 $11 $0 -1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 10 $20 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 10 $24 $0 -1%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 Fren Jun 10 $11 $0 -3%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 10 $40 −$1 -2%
Kasintseva vs. Lepchenko: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 33¢ $5 4d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $5 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $9 4d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $9 4d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? SELL No 86¢ $13 4d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 4d
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 4d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 4d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? SELL No 37¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? SELL No 42¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? BUY No 42¢ $8 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? SELL No 59¢ $24 4d
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? BUY No 59¢ $24 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $16 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $16 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records