Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c4f…5a41 politics 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$3
sports 27% −$3
world 15% −$1
crypto 13% $0
other 11% +$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -20.1% -27.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 -20.1% -27.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 40 -8.5% -17.2% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage226d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $73 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $75 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 09 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $1 $0 -17%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $284 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Jan 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $4 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $92 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $94 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $2 $0 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $96 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Nov 24 $98 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $73 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $73 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $1 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 17d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $60 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 21d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 110d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $87 140d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $87 141d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $87 144d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 145d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 147d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 147d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $89 153d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.40 · official $86.40 (match) · 176 history records