Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c56…e756 sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,515 (-7%) realized −$1,491 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate62%48W / 30L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$188
14 days+$233
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,464
other 34% −$244
tech 10% +$72
culture 5% +$147
politics 1% −$64
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.6% -4.4% 75% 66% +0.1%
≤30d 38 +5.3% -4.7% 74% 61% -0.3%
≤90d 38 +5.3% -4.7% 74% 61% -0.3%
all 78 -16.4% -24.3% 62% 37% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 37% -15.8%
10% -31.6% 17% -23.8%
15% -38.2% 14% -31.2%
20% -44.2% 12% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -38% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$93 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$1,491
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses48 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage407d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 56¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $21 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $70 +$32 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $21 +$32 +149%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $26 +$4 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $49 +$24 +50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $51 −$17 -32%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$17 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$20 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $85 +$16 +19%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $42 +$7 +16%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$21 -80%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $91 +$10 +11%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $77 +$11 +14%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $52 +$9 +16%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $33 +$7 +22%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 +$5 +10%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $224 +$36 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $116 +$6 +5%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $48 −$32 -67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 +$2 +2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 +$3 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 +$33 +89%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $114 +$20 +18%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$37 +146%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $22 +$13 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $44 +$15 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $88 +$13 +14%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $190 +$11 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $38 −$9 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$55 +120%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Heat vs. Thunder Jan 12 $484 −$34 -7%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 12 $1,516 −$1,516 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $20 +$15 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $20 −$12 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 11? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $2,132 +$192 +9%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $50 +$20 +41%
Clippers vs. Pistons Jan 11 $257 −$200 -78%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 11 $630 −$24 -4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9? Jan 11 $2,263 +$72 +3%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 09 $232 +$31 +14%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $457 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 6m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 7m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $58 8m
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 12m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 69¢ $30 13m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $30 13m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 15m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 85¢ $26 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 60¢ $24 52m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $48 54m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $35 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $11 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $11 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $40 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $49 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $101 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 49¢ $48 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $81 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $85 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $42 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $2 24h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 32h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.94 · official $243.01 (match) · 254 history records