Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7C 0x7c56…81a9 sports 584 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$427 (-0%) realized −$463 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate78%487W / 135L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$877per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,672
other 25% −$968
world 0% +$36
crypto 0% −$291
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -48.4% -53.3% 46% 12% -23.7%
≤30d 274 -18.4% -26.2% 74% 8% -14.0%
≤90d 588 -9.9% -18.5% 78% 6% -10.4%
all 622 -9.3% -18.0% 78% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 7% -10.4%
10% -25.8% 2% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -33.0% 2% -26.8%
20% -39.5% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,321) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$87 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized−$463
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses487 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)622 / 584
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$877
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 97¢ $448 $485 +$36 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Jun 17 $1 −$8 -760%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Jazz Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Jaguars vs. Texans Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Avalanche vs. Predators Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Alex Michelsen vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1 −$2 -186%
Spread: 76ers (-8.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Hawks vs. Bucks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Stars Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Jun 17 $88 −$92 -104%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Ball State Cardinals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 238.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Flyers vs. Rangers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Eagles vs. Chargers Jun 17 $142 −$142 -100%
Panthers vs. Red Wings Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Red Wings vs. Predators Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. Monmouth Hawks Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Oilers vs. Blues Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-18.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
UMBC Retrievers vs. NJIT Highlanders Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Titans vs. Browns Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. SMU Mustangs Jun 17 $541 −$541 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LAR vs. Panthers Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
San Jose State Spartans vs. Boise State Broncos Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. Austin Peay Governors Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Saints vs. Buccaneers Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. UNCW Seahawks Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bears vs. Eagles Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Islanders vs. Kings: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $533 +$44 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $861 −$582 -68%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $834 +$47 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 +$54 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,035 +$3 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $217 +$23 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $579 +$21 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $942 +$51 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $580 +$9 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $896 +$38 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $82 57m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $186 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $92 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $277 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $300 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $36 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $153 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $26 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $27 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $279 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $61 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $722 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $280 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $382 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $339 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $345 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $23 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $132 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $377 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $77 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.74 · official $484.74 (match) · 3500 history records