Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c56…ee02 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-4%) realized −$34 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day65.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$70
sports 5% −$21
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -42.6% -48.1% 20% 9% -15.0%
≤30d 56 -42.6% -48.1% 20% 9% -15.0%
≤90d 56 -42.6% -48.1% 20% 9% -15.0%
all 56 -42.6% -48.1% 20% 9% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.1% 9% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -53.1% 9% -23.1%
15% -57.6% 4% -30.6%
20% -61.7% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day65.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Tesla 3¢ 2¢ $60 $39 −$21 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $84 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $108 +$11 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $127 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$1 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $57 −$2 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$5 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $66 −$5 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$2 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$5 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$5 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $66 +$4 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$3 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$9 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$5 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$3 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$2 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $81 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.95 · official $38.95 (match) · 364 history records