Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7C 0x7c56…9337 crypto 876 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$830 (+1%) realized +$830 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%797W / 79L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$63
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$141
other 22% +$744
world 11% +$201
weather 10% −$99
sports 1% +$32
finance 0% +$13
politics 0% +$39
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 7% -9.3%
≤30d 174 -4.2% -13.3% 92% 5% -10.2%
≤90d 594 -0.7% -10.2% 94% 3% -9.4%
all 876 -2.4% -11.7% 91% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 6% -9.0%
10% -20.2% 4% -17.7%
15% -27.9% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$830
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses797 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)876 / 876
History coverage221d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 876 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 16? Jun 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $707 +$109 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $111 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on June 2? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $213 −$17 -8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 1? Jun 02 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on June 1? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $250 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $157 −$150 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 31? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 31? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 10h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $98 21h
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $100 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $100 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $51 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 97¢ $60 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $60 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? SELL Yes 91¢ $54 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 2? BUY No 98¢ $24 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2162 history records