Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c58…f411 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$36
sports 26% −$22
politics 9% −$8
culture 6% −$5
economics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage138d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $175 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $993 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $438 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $463 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $251 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $153 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $244 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $317 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $510 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $435 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $388 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $302 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 3h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $63 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $63 7h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 9h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $63 11h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 13h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 18h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 21h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 26h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 28h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 30h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 31h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 33h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 40h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 42h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $12 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.57 · official $62.57 (match) · 1392 history records