Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c5a…17ea other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 27% −$11
sports 14% +$22
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 111 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage126d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $540 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $329 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $274 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $308 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $308 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $321 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $329 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $271 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $303 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 10 $334 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $258 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $247 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $336 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $267 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $494 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 06 $302 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $299 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $336 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $39 11d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 53d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $290 61d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $290 63d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $254 63d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $254 63d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $327 63d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 63d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $290 63d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $290 63d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $245 63d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 64d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $310 64d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $310 64d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 64d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 64d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $246 64d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $246 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 318 history records