Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c5d…44d1 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-2%) realized −$53 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$137
sports 17% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% -11.5%
≤30d 32 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% -11.5%
≤90d 32 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% -11.5%
all 32 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 53% -11.5%
10% -23.4% 34% -20.0%
15% -30.8% 28% -27.7%
20% -37.6% 12% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$74 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $111 +$22 +20%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $25 −$12 -46%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $131 +$36 +27%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $153 −$93 -61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 +$71 +138%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $253 −$250 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $211 +$25 +12%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $61 −$7 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $302 +$57 +19%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$24 -58%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $303 +$101 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$45 -88%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $303 +$124 +41%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $362 +$73 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $432 −$187 -43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $402 +$60 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $253 +$94 +37%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$14 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 +$60 +49%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $61 −$13 -21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $160 +$59 +37%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$12 -38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $69 +$44 +64%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 −$131 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $180 +$21 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $41 0m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 71¢ $133 3m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 19m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 35m
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 84¢ $167 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 8h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 21h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $60 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 22h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $94 24h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $84 24h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $122 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 32h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $71 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $112 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $236 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $54 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $360 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 77¢ $211 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $404 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.68 · official $38.68 (match) · 64 history records