Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7C 0x7c60…b19c other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 203d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 203d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,817 (+7%) realized +$21,908 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%38W / 25L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$5,401per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$3,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days+$7,717
30 days+$7,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$8,779
sports 44% +$15,308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 -5.9% -14.8% 50% 36% +1.2%
≤90d 24 -36.6% -42.6% 38% 21% -5.7%
all 63 +24.2% +12.4% 60% 38% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.4% 38% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.6% 29% -12.1%
15% -8.2% 27% -20.6%
20% -17.2% 25% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$2,177) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +85% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
31.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$843 vs −$315 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.07 per $1 lost it wins $4.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$3,570
Realized+$21,908
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses38 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 61
History coverage203d ⚠
Avg bet$5,401
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,953 $2,930 +$977 (+50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,708 $641 −$1,068 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Notre Dame win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sam Darnold win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $742 +$628 +85%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,198 −$2,177 -99%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 15 $29,145 +$5,957 +20%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $8,215 +$253 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $223 +$453 +203%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jun 15 $466 +$905 +194%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 15 $1,756 +$1,324 +75%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $15,740 +$411 +3%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $376 −$368 -98%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $195 −$118 -61%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $233 −$226 -97%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1,875 −$1,831 -98%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $341 −$331 -97%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $24 −$24 -97%
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 27 $11,611 +$323 +3%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 27 $62,149 +$628 +1%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $759 −$441 -58%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes Mar 20 $59,400 −$1,680 -3%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $32,150 +$361 +1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $335 −$128 -38%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $146 +$2 +2%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $130 −$3 -3%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $1,111 +$628 +56%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $49 +$441 +892%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $5,254 +$585 +11%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $70 −$45 -64%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $94 +$17 +18%
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 20 $97 −$19 -19%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $6 +$9 +140%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $4 +$4 +100%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $5,872 +$254 +4%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 20 $1,070 −$311 -29%
Will North Carolina win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $1,716 +$109 +6%
Will NC State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $26 +$27 +104%
Will Auburn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 19 $20,039 +$154 +1%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 12 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 09 $2,524 +$66 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 24m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 34m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 37m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 38m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,570.29 · official $3,570.29 (match) · 3500 history records