Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7c62…fb9e crypto 664 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,724 (-7%) realized −$1,723 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%320W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$329
14 days−$377
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,552
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 163 -8.0% -16.8% 33% 6% -15.1%
≤30d 277 -4.9% -14.0% 38% 21% -4.9%
≤90d 496 -4.6% -13.6% 44% 34% +9.2%
all 661 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 41% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 41% +9.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 39% -1.4%
15% -24.7% 39% -11.0%
20% -32.0% 39% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$1,723
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses320 / 341
Open positions3
Markets (closed)661 / 664
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 51¢ 52¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$9 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $73 −$71 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$8 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $70 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$27 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $68 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$13 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $67 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$6 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$12 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $38 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $82 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $34 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $34 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.88 · official $83.88 (match) · 3500 history records