Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7c66…0a4f sports 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$507 (-4%) realized −$474 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%103W / 154L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$826
14 days+$677
30 days+$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$412
other 7% −$173
economics 0% +$2
world 0% −$3
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +80.3% +63.1% 100% 100% +59.3%
≤30d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 36% +7.6%
≤90d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 36% 36% +7.6%
all 257 -18.8% -26.5% 40% 34% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 34% -13.5%
10% -33.5% 31% -21.8%
15% -40.0% 25% -29.3%
20% -45.8% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$25 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,670
Realized−$474
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses103 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage135d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 61¢ 60¢ $1,703 $1,670 −$33 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 24 $653 +$389 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $432 +$437 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $331 −$326 -98%
Howard Bison vs. UNCW Seahawks Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $175 −$175 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $202 +$417 +207%
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,032 −$35 -3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $338 +$238 +70%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 08 $77 −$4 -6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 08 $230 −$230 -100%
Houston Cougars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves May 30 $30 −$14 -48%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea Mar 28 $568 +$158 +28%
Bucaramanga: Franco Roncadelli vs Samuel Heredia Mar 25 $970 +$210 +22%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 21 $1,078 −$268 -25%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs TDK (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Mar 21 $83 +$26 +31%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs CSDIILIT (+1.5) Mar 21 $361 −$7 -2%
Map Handicap: FA (-1.5) vs Players (+1.5) Mar 21 $9 $0 -2%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $171 −$160 -94%
Counter-Strike: hindsight vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 19 $568 +$205 +36%
Counter-Strike: SINQU vs GenOne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C Mar 18 $7 $0 -2%
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision? Mar 18 $24 +$2 +8%
Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5 Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Alliance (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 27.5 Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Myles Turner: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Grayson Allen: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 18 $175 −$175 -100%
Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 Mar 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $351 −$351 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Red Wings vs. Stars: O/U 7.5 Mar 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Capitals vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Dejounte Murray: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Mar 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 Mar 18 $128 −$128 -100%
Dejounte Murray: Points O/U 18.5 Mar 18 $169 −$169 -100%
Map Handicap: HS (-1.5) vs AIRLYA (+1.5) Mar 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Miami Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Mar 18 $251 +$181 +72%
Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $257 +$378 +147%
Maxim Mrva vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $52 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: hindsight vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Mar 17 $52 +$4 +9%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Pigeons (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Mar 17 $140 −$47 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 59¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 63¢ $178 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 62¢ $555 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 62¢ $356 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 61¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 61¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 61¢ $116 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 59¢ $71 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $103 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $303 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Tristan Boyer 62¢ $653 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $432 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $331 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $619 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $202 11d
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) BUY Paul 51¢ $516 13d
Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) BUY Paul 51¢ $516 13d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $338 15d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 37¢ $175 19d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S SELL ASTRAL 36¢ $70 19d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S SELL ASTRAL 36¢ $3 19d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S BUY ASTRAL 37¢ $35 19d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S BUY ASTRAL 37¢ $41 19d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $230 19d
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea BUY SemperFi Esports 80¢ $168 92d
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea BUY SemperFi Esports 77¢ $160 92d
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea BUY SemperFi Esports 78¢ $240 92d
Bucaramanga: Franco Roncadelli vs Samuel Heredia BUY Franco Roncadelli 83¢ $218 95d
Bucaramanga: Franco Roncadelli vs Samuel Heredia BUY Franco Roncadelli 82¢ $751 95d
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League BUY Isurus 64¢ $112 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,670.09 · official $1,670.10 (match) · 631 history records