Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7c67…a0e0 sports 524 markets active 4h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,634 (-2%) realized −$1,617 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%236W / 280L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$267est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$863now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$2,243
14 days+$2,032
30 days+$2,740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$2,367
crypto 7% −$732
other 5% +$1,228
world 0% +$5
finance 0% −$15
culture 0% +$13
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.2% -12.4% 44% 44% +11.0%
≤30d 68 +5.5% -4.6% 49% 49% +11.1%
≤90d 197 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 42% -13.8%
all 516 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 45% -12.0%
10% -20.2% 43% -20.5%
15% -27.9% 41% -28.1%
20% -34.9% 38% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$109 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$863
Realized−$1,617
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses236 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$267
Open positions8
Markets (closed)516 / 524
History coverage143d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $405 +$308 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $405 +$321 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$188 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $810 +$154 +19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $346 −$302 -87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $205 −$161 -79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $305 −$181 -59%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$268 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$189 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $153 +$261 +171%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $619 +$620 +100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $153 −$134 -88%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $710 +$702 +99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $606 −$600 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $406 +$371 +91%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$40 -40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$243 +238%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 +$273 +90%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $256 +$60 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $51 −$32 -62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $406 −$219 -54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $117 +$109 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $152 +$181 +119%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $62 −$52 -84%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $714 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $405 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $727 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $405 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $735 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $406 30h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes $44 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $43 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $505 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $142 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $229 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $305 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $124 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $204 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $863.00 · official $863.00 (match) · 1219 history records