Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7C 0x7c68…448a other 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-22%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.6% -20.9% 50% 50% -28.9%
≤30d 4 -12.6% -20.9% 50% 50% -28.9%
≤90d 4 -12.6% -20.9% 50% 50% -28.9%
all 4 -12.6% -20.9% 50% 50% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 50% -28.9%
10% -28.5% 50% -35.7%
15% -35.4% 50% -41.9%
20% -41.7% 25% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records