Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c6e…4363 politics 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 670d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$20
other 14% −$3
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 103 -7.4% -16.2% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

670d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage670d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 28 $59 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will MAGA reach $1b first? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Canada federal election in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Kupp be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Record of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -5%
Will Bam Adebayo win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
PartyDAO airdrop in 2024? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Two Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -7%
Hunter Biden sentenced to rehab in gun case? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 4-10 years in gun case? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $18 6h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $6 9h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 10h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $8 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 23d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 25d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 25d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 44d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 44d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $58 49d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $58 49d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 72d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 73d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 83d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $60 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $27 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 95d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 102d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 102d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 105d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 105d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 109d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records