Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c70…9cf6 other 15 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$779 (-54%) realized −$753 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$749
sports 7% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.3% -23.4% 36% 36% -60.8%
≤30d 11 -15.3% -23.4% 36% 36% -60.8%
≤90d 11 -15.3% -23.4% 36% 36% -60.8%
all 11 -15.3% -23.4% 36% 36% -60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -60.8%
10% -30.7% 36% -64.6%
15% -37.4% 36% -68.0%
20% -43.5% 27% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$144 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$753
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $64 $46 −$18 (-29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$36 +119%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $504 −$501 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$118 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $223 +$94 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +206%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $67 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $504 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.95 · official $73.95 (match) · 33 history records