Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c72…2c83 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-15%) realized −$76 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$87
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 0% -58.4%
≤30d 3 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 0% -58.4%
≤90d 3 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 0% -58.4%
all 3 -30.7% -37.3% 33% 0% -58.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 0% -58.4%
10% -43.3% 0% -62.4%
15% -48.8% 0% -66.0%
20% -53.8% 0% -69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$42 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 47¢ 46¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 34¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 43¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $191 −$82 -43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $44 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 30¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $51 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $13 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 41¢ $12 14h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $94 25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 61¢ $18 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $1 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $40 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $15 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $50 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $98 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 67¢ $11 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.56 · official $300.56 (match) · 21 history records