Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7c73…6ee3 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22,781 (+24%) realized +$22,781 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$4,106per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$627est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31,348
7 days+$19,578
14 days+$21,945
30 days+$21,945
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$38,569
sports 30% −$20,037
crypto 5% +$3,413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.9% -20.3% 45% 45% +11.0%
≤30d 23 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 48% +11.7%
≤90d 23 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 48% +11.7%
all 23 -9.6% -18.2% 48% 48% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 48% +11.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 48% +1.0%
15% -33.2% 48% -8.8%
20% -39.7% 39% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$5,061) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5,144 vs −$2,886 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$627
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4,106
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,463 +$5,475 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,471 −$3,400 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3,057 +$5,051 +165%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,038 −$3,000 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20,348 +$27,222 +134%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $8,170 −$8,000 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $514 −$500 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10,099 +$4,811 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10,240 −$10,000 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4,182 −$4,089 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,086 +$4,414 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,921 +$3,318 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,460 −$1,450 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $998 +$499 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,938 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $3,471 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,463 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3,057 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,038 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $47,570 45h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $8,170 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20,348 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $200 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $514 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $14,910 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10,240 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10,099 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4,182 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $5,061 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,021 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,022 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,023 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $8,086 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $4,921 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,460 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $998 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records