Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7C 0x7c75…978e other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$889 (+9%) realized +$1,001 · open −$112
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%71W / 50L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$193
14 days−$23
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$299
other 30% −$115
sports 24% +$126
finance 8% +$18
world 2% +$71
crypto 1% +$77
culture 1% −$21
tech 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.2% -7.5% 64% 64% -1.3%
≤30d 68 -3.3% -12.5% 56% 56% -2.9%
≤90d 95 -1.7% -11.0% 61% 56% -4.4%
all 121 -4.6% -13.7% 59% 53% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 53% -3.4%
10% -21.9% 38% -12.7%
15% -29.5% 28% -21.1%
20% -36.4% 24% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$36 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$712
Realized+$1,001
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses71 / 50
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions16
Markets (closed)121 / 137
History coverage153d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $300 $263 −$37 (-12%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $110 $101 −$9 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $55 $38 −$17 (-31%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 44¢ 32¢ $53 $38 −$15 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+40%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 62¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+160%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 40¢ $16 $11 −$4 (-28%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 32¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 28¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $492 +$72 +15%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $70 +$9 +13%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $65 +$10 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $116 +$72 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $302 +$103 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $98 +$14 +14%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$150 +147%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 +$41 +42%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$44 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $807 +$200 +25%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $26 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $10 +$12 +114%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $252 +$34 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $21 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $41 +$29 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $112 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $528 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $55 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 28h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $21 28h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $6 28h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 28h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $80 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $59 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 29h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 86¢ $402 29h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $189 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $405 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $302 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $711.51 · official $711.55 (match) · 666 history records