Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c7f…1017 world 31 markets active 16h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1
other 21% −$5
politics 4% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% +$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 29% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 15 -2.4% -11.7% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -2.4% -11.7% 27% 0% -9.9%
all 31 -3.3% -12.6% 45% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -10.3%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage465d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $4 −$1 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $33 −$3 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $71 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $6 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $4 $0 -10%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +3%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on March 14? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $30 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $4 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $4 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $29 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $29 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $32 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $32 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $37 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $37 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $26 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $8 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records