Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c82…5a52 sports 896 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,813 (+8%) realized +$4,742 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%479W / 411L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$453est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$236
7 days+$1,372
14 days+$1,210
30 days+$2,989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$4,377
weather 0% +$96
world 0% −$7
other 0% −$12
crypto 0% +$26
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +13.6% +2.8% 52% 51% +2.9%
≤30d 368 +0.5% -9.1% 53% 51% -3.7%
≤90d 872 +4.4% -5.5% 54% 52% -2.7%
all 890 +4.6% -5.4% 54% 52% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 52% -2.7%
10% -14.4% 47% -12.0%
15% -22.7% 43% -20.5%
20% -30.3% 35% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$25 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$4,742
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses479 / 411
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$453
Open positions6
Markets (closed)890 / 896
History coverage166d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 63¢ 100¢ $98 $154 +$56 (+57%)
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+126%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 261 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 21 $15 +$8 +50%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 21 $1,017 +$148 +14%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $172 +$107 +62%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $12 +$10 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 −$5 -22%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $93 +$32 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $48 −$47 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $47 +$29 +62%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $46 +$18 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $490 +$894 +182%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $527 −$522 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $22 −$22 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $1,241 +$154 +12%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $87 −$86 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1,003 +$116 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $41 +$55 +134%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $13 +$9 +65%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $22 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$31 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $42 +$18 +43%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,017 +$229 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$28 +70%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$7 +223%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$26 +490%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $4 +$48 +1179%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $45 +$50 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $99 52m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 12¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 9¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 89¢ $408 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $380 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $50 2h
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) BUY Rune Eaters 49¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 66¢ $15 6h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 45¢ $25 6h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 87¢ $1,017 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $20 23h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 31¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $172 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $18 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 53¢ $12 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $48 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $23 27h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $93 28h
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 29h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 61¢ $47 30h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 72¢ $46 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $20 2d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Auger-Aliassime 38¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $1,384 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $490 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 68¢ $505 2d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.13 · official $196.04 · 1686 history records