Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c85…3359 other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$39
sports 22% −$19
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 5% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage127d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $410 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $462 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $347 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $328 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $546 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $330 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $252 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $327 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $572 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $396 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $159 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 10h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 14h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 15h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 18h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 24h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 25h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 27h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 29h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 30h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 33h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 35h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $45 39h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $45 41h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 46h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.69 · official $44.69 (match) · 1361 history records