Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7C 0x7c86…a676 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$4
other 11% +$1
sports 5% +$16
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 46% 0% -9.1%
all 24 +5.4% -4.6% 67% 4% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 4% -7.3%
10% -13.8% 4% -16.1%
15% -22.1% 4% -24.2%
20% -29.7% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.65 per $1 lost it wins $13.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage479d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 76¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $99 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $134 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $91 +$4 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $8 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $37 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Hofstra vs. Stony Brook Mar 20 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Thursday? Feb 26 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $32 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $48 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $48 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $25 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $25 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $10 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $8 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $2 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $24 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $44 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $49 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.90 · official $32.90 (match) · 85 history records