Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c86…9e3d other 14 markets active 4d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-8%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$56
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$16
other 25% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 33% -85.8%
≤30d 14 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 36% -21.8%
≤90d 14 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 36% -21.8%
all 14 -39.1% -44.9% 36% 36% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.9% 36% -21.8%
10% -50.2% 21% -29.2%
15% -55.0% 14% -36.1%
20% -59.4% 7% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage12d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -94%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$3 -31%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $84 −$64 -76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $138 +$21 +15%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $74 +$10 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $3 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $6 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $9 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $20 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 39¢ $11 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $43 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $41 12d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 40¢ $12 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 12d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $3 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $13 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $74 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $75 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $64 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 13d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $18 14d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 59¢ $54 14d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $56 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.52 (match) · 35 history records