Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

7C 0x7c87…e96e other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$198 (-4%) realized −$187 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate78%18W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$208per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$76

7 days+$118

14 days+$118

30 days+$118

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+10.4%	-0.1%	100%	22%	-5.7%
≤30d	9	+10.4%	-0.1%	100%	22%	-5.7%
≤90d	9	+10.4%	-0.1%	100%	22%	-5.7%
all	23	+1.2%	-8.4%	78%	35%	-8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.4%	35%	-8.5%
10%	-17.2%	22%	-17.3%
15%	-25.2%	22%	-25.3%
20%	-32.5%	17%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

56% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late -11% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$52 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized−$187

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses18 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage228d

Avg bet$208

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	87¢	72¢	$60	$49	−$11 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$150	+$17	+12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	+$6	+55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$250	+$9	+3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$503	+$5	+1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$487	+$16	+3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$300	+$6	+2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$251	+$18	+7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$401	+$17	+4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$421	+$25	+6%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 26	$3	−$3	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25?	Jan 25	$540	−$150	-28%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	Jan 25	$7	−$2	-29%
Heat vs. Jazz	Jan 25	$300	+$9	+3%
Celtics vs. Bulls	Jan 25	$40	+$24	+61%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	Jan 24	$40	+$15	+39%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Jan 24	$324	+$24	+8%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Jan 18	$40	+$22	+54%
Flyers vs. Sabres	Jan 15	$1	$0	+15%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	Jan 15	$250	+$44	+18%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2025-11-09?	Jan 14	$100	−$100	-100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	Jan 14	$230	+$23	+10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Jan 12	$238	−$2	-1%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2025-10-31?	Oct 31	$50	+$29	+59%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$168	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	89¢	$150	2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	100¢	$259	5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	96¢	$250	5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	99¢	$503	19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	97¢	$487	29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$306	40h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	98¢	$300	41h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	93¢	$251	45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	96¢	$401	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$446	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	98¢	$21	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	94¢	$401	2d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	87¢	$50	10d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	87¢	$10	10d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	20¢	$3	140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25?	BUY No	70¢	$150	141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25?	SELL Yes	30¢	$148	141d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	22¢	$5	141d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$7	141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25?	BUY Yes	91¢	$90	141d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25?	BUY Yes	77¢	$300	141d
Heat vs. Jazz	SELL Heat	100¢	$309	141d
Heat vs. Jazz	BUY Heat	97¢	$300	141d
Celtics vs. Bulls	SELL Bulls	100¢	$64	141d
Celtics vs. Bulls	BUY Bulls	62¢	$40	141d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	SELL Japan	100¢	$55	142d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan	BUY Japan	72¢	$40	142d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.31 · official $49.31 (match) · 77 history records