Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c8b…32ad other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$121 (-22%) realized −$122 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%5W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$51
sports 13% +$95
crypto 10% −$49
politics 3% −$6
world 2% −$6
economics 1% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -35.2% -41.4% 12% 12% -23.9%
≤30d 16 -35.2% -41.4% 12% 12% -23.9%
≤90d 16 -35.2% -41.4% 12% 12% -23.9%
all 59 -13.8% -22.0% 8% 7% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 7% -31.3%
10% -29.4% 7% -37.8%
15% -36.3% 7% -43.8%
20% -42.5% 7% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$5 · ×9.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses5 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 65
History coverage189d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $99 −$11 -11%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A Jun 23 $26 +$109 +425%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$40 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Brown University shooter be arrested on December 27? Dec 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post? Dec 22 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 22 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -71%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico"? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -67%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel"? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -37%
Will MrBeast hit 104.5 billion views by December 31? Dec 22 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -32%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -33%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Brown University shooter be arrested on December 29? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +145%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Dec 22 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? Dec 22 $2 −$1 -56%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Dec 22 $4 −$2 -55%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Dec 22 $3 −$1 -38%
Weed rescheduled in 2025? Dec 22 $4 −$2 -53%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Dec 22 $5 −$2 -46%
Will MrBeast hit 106 billion views by December 31? Dec 22 $2 −$2 -72%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 22 $8 −$5 -56%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 22 $5 $0 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 22 $5 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $5 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 22 $4 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $10 −$4 -45%
Will the Brown University shooter be arrested on December 22? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Brown University shooter be arrested on December 21? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
No US strike on Syria in 2025? Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8. BUY $1 16m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Panama vs. C BUY $1 17m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $19 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 21h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 A BUY $5 21h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A BUY 19¢ $26 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $4 26h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $14 27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $5 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $10 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 30h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026 BUY 20¢ $26 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $15 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.65 · official $26.35 · 123 history records