Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7C 0x7c8b…94ed crypto 1603 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$409 (-8%) realized −$409 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate84%1388W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$490
14 days−$463
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$105
other 20% −$17
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -68.0% -71.0% 28% 8% -84.6%
≤30d 987 -12.4% -20.8% 74% 35% -15.7%
≤90d 1653 -4.4% -13.5% 84% 30% -12.5%
all 1653 -4.4% -13.5% 84% 30% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 30% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 8% -20.9%
15% -29.3% 3% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 2% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$409
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1388 / 265
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1653 / 1603
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1653 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records