Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c8c…2d81 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$90
14 days−$84
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$111
politics 5% −$8
other 5% +$22
world 4% −$44
economics 2% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -35.0% -41.2% 57% 14% -16.7%
≤30d 39 -4.2% -13.3% 64% 33% -12.3%
≤90d 48 -20.0% -27.6% 54% 27% -17.1%
all 48 -20.0% -27.6% 54% 27% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 27% -17.1%
10% -34.5% 27% -25.1%
15% -40.9% 23% -32.3%
20% -46.7% 15% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage69d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 50¢ 99¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+99%)
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 79¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 77¢ 89¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 62¢ 82¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 71¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $99 +$3 +3%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $49 +$2 +3%
Will Trump say "Marine" or "Veteran" during Medal of Honor ceremony on Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +75%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +33%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 09 $6 +$4 +57%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $15 +$5 +37%
Will Starmer say "U-Turn" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e May 28 $3 +$3 +122%
Will Starmer say "United States" during the next Prime Minister's Ques May 28 $4 +$5 +127%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? May 28 $10 +$11 +117%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference? May 28 $10 +$12 +127%
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference? May 28 $6 +$19 +300%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 28 $14 −$4 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Powell say "Tariff inflation" during April press conference? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Starmer say "Epstein" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $49 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $50 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 99¢ $50 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $50 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 97¢ $49 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 98¢ $46 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 98¢ $4 3h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $51 3h
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA BUY No 2¢ $2 4h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor BUY No 2¢ $2 4h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY No 2¢ $2 5h
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA BUY No 2¢ $2 6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $1 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $48 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $50 10h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl BUY No 2¢ $0 10h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY No 2¢ $2 10h
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor BUY No 2¢ $2 10h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Wor BUY No 2¢ $2 10h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl BUY No 2¢ $2 10h
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY No 2¢ $0 11h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the USA vs Australia FIFA Worl BUY No 2¢ $2 12h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 98¢ $50 28h
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $7 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 99¢ $49 28h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 98¢ $51 28h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $1 31h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $49 31h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 97¢ $49 32h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 97¢ $0 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.70 · official $44.69 (match) · 112 history records