Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c8d…f822 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-5%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$462
world 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -8.9% -17.5% 15% 3% -22.4%
≤30d 33 -8.9% -17.5% 15% 3% -22.4%
≤90d 33 -8.9% -17.5% 15% 3% -22.4%
all 33 -8.9% -17.5% 15% 3% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 3% -22.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 0% -29.8%
15% -32.6% 0% -36.6%
20% -39.2% 0% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $62 −$5 -8%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 −$16 -16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$23 -22%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 −$8 -27%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $93 −$23 -24%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $96 +$17 +18%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $14 $0 -3%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $93 −$53 -58%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $92 −$18 -19%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 21 $93 −$4 -4%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $27 −$3 -13%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $91 +$4 +5%
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $91 −$1 -2%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $74 −$8 -11%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $92 −$4 -4%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $93 +$5 +6%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -8%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,014 −$289 -28%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$8 -8%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$1 -1%
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 −$6 -6%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -5%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $87 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 58¢ $57 1h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $85 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $80 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $96 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $23 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $71 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 4¢ $113 1h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 1h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 1h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 16¢ $75 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $89 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 32¢ $89 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 6¢ $17 1h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 11¢ $23 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 90¢ $42 1h
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 67¢ $90 1h
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $66 1h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $47 1h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $98 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 31¢ $7 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $629 1h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 91¢ $3 2h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 91¢ $14 2h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 14¢ $96 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records