Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c8e…dd59 world 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,069 (+2%) realized +$2,124 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%34W / 25L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,916per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,945now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,193
14 days+$1,193
30 days+$2,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$599
finance 18% −$1,102
other 18% +$1,530
politics 14% +$804
crypto 13% −$1,770
tech 4% +$396
sports 0% +$1,087
economics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.0% +43.8% 100% 100% +43.8%
≤30d 3 +28.8% +16.6% 67% 67% +8.7%
≤90d 29 +1.9% -7.8% 48% 31% -4.6%
all 59 +0.9% -8.7% 58% 29% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 29% -8.2%
10% -17.4% 15% -17.0%
15% -25.4% 8% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$2,023) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$295 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$4,945
Realized+$2,124
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses34 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage114d
Avg bet$1,916
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $3,000 $2,980 −$20 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2,000 $1,965 −$35 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2,023 +$1,193 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $5,000 −$379 -8%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $4,034 +$1,418 +35%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $154 −$88 -57%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 23 $2,000 +$90 +4%
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? May 19 $10 −$1 -5%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 18 $106 −$36 -34%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? May 18 $2,020 +$121 +6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $5,000 −$365 -7%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4,050 +$1,276 +32%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? May 13 $204 −$9 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 07 $9,133 −$1,816 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $5,000 +$7 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $5,000 +$605 +12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on May 04 $104 −$76 -73%
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? May 01 $104 −$29 -28%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $2,000 +$338 +17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Apr 23 $3,000 +$257 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $2,000 +$338 +17%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Apr 16 $12,400 −$351 -3%
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Apr 15 $100 −$57 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $3,500 +$715 +20%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Apr 13 $1,300 −$35 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $500 +$1,087 +217%
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April? Mar 31 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Mar 31 $2,000 +$169 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Mar 31 $900 +$170 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 31 $10,000 −$73 -1%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 8AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 19 $2,000 +$44 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 19 $1,000 +$32 +3%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $8,700 +$272 +3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? Mar 19 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 19 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 18 $3,500 −$1,710 -49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 16 $1,000 +$21 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 16 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Electi Mar 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 16 $269 +$49 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 19? Mar 16 $13 +$5 +41%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Mar 15 $200 +$13 +7%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? Mar 15 $500 −$50 -10%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Mar 15 $1,500 −$11 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 13 $2,400 −$1,275 -53%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 11 $1,000 −$115 -12%
Will Miguel Lopez get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio? Mar 10 $100 −$3 -3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Mar 10 $1,000 +$51 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3,000 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,034 25h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2,023 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4,621 27d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $67 31d
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? SELL No 70¢ $2,090 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $5,000 35d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $154 35d
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL Yes $9 36d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No $71 36d
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No $106 37d
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? BUY Yes $10 37d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? SELL No 81¢ $2,141 37d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL No 68¢ $4,635 37d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $195 42d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? BUY No 75¢ $2,020 42d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4,050 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? SELL Yes 46¢ $1,141 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,258 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 81¢ $4,050 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? SELL Yes 77¢ $4,917 48d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 51¢ $204 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 77¢ $5,083 49d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 82¢ $5,007 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 98¢ $5,605 49d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on SELL Yes $28 51d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 82¢ $5,000 51d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,034 51d
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes $75 53d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on BUY Yes 11¢ $104 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,945.18 · official $4,945.18 (match) · 154 history records