trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 33% | 0% | -8.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 38% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 38% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 20 | -8.1% | -16.8% | 40% | 5% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.8% | 5% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -24.8% | 5% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -32.0% | 5% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -38.7% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 15 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 14 | $15 | −$1 | -7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $65 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? | Jun 08 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| UIC vs. Northern Iowa | Mar 20 | $8 | −$5 | -56% |
| Penn State vs. Indiana | Feb 26 | $8 | −$1 | -8% |
| Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara | Feb 25 | $6 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 25 | $3 | +$1 | +39% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on February 25? | Feb 24 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| UT Rio Grande Valley vs. McNeese State | Feb 24 | $8 | −$2 | -27% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? | Feb 23 | $8 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup? | Feb 23 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | Feb 23 | $8 | $0 | +6% |