Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c93…bb29 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$210 (-8%) realized −$164 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$339
7 days+$307
14 days+$307
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$295
economics 29% −$571
crypto 6% +$23
world 4% +$5
sports 3% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +18.9% +7.6% 50% 50% +16.1%
≤30d 14 +5.9% -4.2% 43% 43% -22.2%
≤90d 14 +5.9% -4.2% 43% 43% -22.2%
all 14 +5.9% -4.2% 43% 43% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 43% -22.2%
10% -13.3% 36% -29.6%
15% -21.7% 36% -36.4%
20% -29.4% 36% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$118 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized−$164
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)14 / 29
History coverage62d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$11 -27%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$10 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$18 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 26 $350 −$263 -75%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $450 −$307 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 25¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $51 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $182 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $357 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $72 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $79 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $783.91 · official $783.93 (match) · 58 history records