Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7C 0x7c95…5073 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$82 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +165% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +122% what you keep after slip
Net edge+122%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$114
other 22% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+140.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +165.4% +140.1% 100% 100% +52.8%
≤30d 3 +165.4% +140.1% 100% 100% +52.8%
≤90d 3 +165.4% +140.1% 100% 100% +52.8%
all 3 +165.4% +140.1% 100% 100% +52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +140.1% 100% +52.8%
10% +117.1% 100% +38.2%
15% +96.1% 67% +24.8%
20% +76.9% 67% +12.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +165% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$62 +406%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $140 +$46 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 38m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $186 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY 89¢ $100 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.41 · official $11.41 (match) · 18 history records