Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7C 0x7c97…4df3 crypto 412 markets active 5d ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$378 (-7%) realized −$378 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%280W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$421
sports 14% $0
other 3% −$10
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -14.0% -22.2% 57% 43% -19.6%
≤30d 47 -14.0% -22.2% 57% 43% -19.6%
≤90d 65 -17.6% -25.5% 60% 38% -20.9%
all 412 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 52% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 52% -16.9%
10% -21.0% 39% -24.9%
15% -28.6% 26% -32.2%
20% -35.6% 19% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$378
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses280 / 132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)412 / 412
History coverage485d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 412 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$27 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$3 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1PM ET Apr 27 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1201 history records